Buy Property Now or Wait for Interest Rates to Fall? Real Simulations for Florianópolis

The Selic rate is at 14.50% annually. The COPOM cut 0.25 percentage points in April 2026 and did not signal urgency for the next move. The Focus Bulletin projects the rate at 13% by year-end — but “projection” is not a guarantee.

In this scenario, the question that arrives at real estate agency counters in Florianópolis is always the same: is it worth buying now or is it better to wait for interest rates to fall?

This article will not dodge the verdict. It will show the math, compare scenarios with real numbers from the Florianópolis property market, and tell you exactly which profile should buy now and which has legitimate reason to wait.

1. The argument of those who wait — and why it might be wrong

The reasoning of those who decide to wait is linear and, at first glance, airtight: the Selic will fall, financing rates will fall with it, the monthly payment will get smaller.

The problem lies in what this reasoning omits: the cost of waiting is not zero.

The median rent for a 3-bedroom apartment in Florianópolis in May 2026 stands at R$ 4,788 per month. In 12 months of waiting, that amounts to R$ 57,456 that leave your pocket with no property return whatsoever.

The average price per square meter in Florianópolis reached R$ 13,208 in April 2026 (FipeZAP), with an increase of 7.97% over the past 12 months. A R$ 900,000 property today will be around R$ 972,000 in 12 months — R$ 72,000 more expensive.

The total cost of waiting 12 months, for someone paying rent in Florianópolis, exceeds R$ 129,000.

2. Selic ≠ Financing Rate: The Difference That Changes Everything

Here is the point that surprises most: the property financing does not use the Selic as a direct index.

While the Selic is at 14.50% annually, property financing rates operate between 9.01% and 11.70% annually — 3 to 5 percentage points below the Selic.

Sources: Larya, MySide, SPImóvel — May 2026

Loan Portability: The Safety Net for Those Who Buy at High Rates

Under National Monetary Council Resolution No. 4.292/2013, any institution in the National Financial System is obligated to accept portability requests. In practice: you finance today with Caixa at 11.19%, the Selic falls, and you take your outstanding balance to the bank offering the new rate — without ITBI, without a new contract.

The total cost of portability — property appraisal plus registration of the loan assumption at the notary — ranges from R$ 2,300 to R$ 4,500. For a R$ 700,000 financing, a 1.5 percentage point rate drop saves more than R$ 150,000 over the life of the loan.

3. Simulation 1 — Family: 3-Bedroom Apartment, R$ 900,000 in Florianópolis

Profile: Family with children, property to live in. Available down payment: R$ 200,000. CLT employee with accumulated FGTS.

Scenario A: Buy Now — Caixa Pro-Subscriber (FGTS), 9.01% a.a.

• Total paid in 30 years: ~R$ 1,007,000
• Total interest: ~R$ 307,000

Scenario B: Wait 12 Months and Buy After

The net balance of waiting over 30 years is only ~R$ 7,544 in favor — less than R$ 8,000 in financial advantage to assume 12 months of uncertainty and rent. For the family profile, this calculation does not support waiting.

4. Simulation 2 — Investor: Pre-Owned Property R$ 700,000, Purchase for Rental Income

Profile: Investor who does not need the property to live in. Objective: passive income from rentals and long-term property protection.

The Positive Spread of +1.31 p.p. Between Total Yield and Financing Cost

• Estimated monthly rent (2/3-bedroom, neighborhood with demand): R$ 4,200
• Gross annual yield: 7.2% a.a.
• Net yield (after property management fee 12%, vacancy 5%, costs): ~4.5% a.a.
• Total return (net yield + historical appreciation FLN): ~12.5% a.a.
• Financing cost: 11.19% a.a.
• Positive spread: +1.31 percentage points

The property, when we add rental income and appreciation, yields more than it costs to finance. This is property leverage.

5. Florianópolis: Does Price Per Square Meter Rise Even With High Selic?

Accumulated appreciation from October 2015 to April 2026: ~109%. In the past 12 months, the increase was 7.97% — even with the Selic at the cycle peak.

6. When Waiting Really Makes Sense — 4 Objective Criteria

• Monthly payment exceeds 30% of gross family income — the most objective and important criterion
• Down payment below 20% of property value
• Credit history in recovery
• Income unstable or in professional transition

If none of these four criteria apply to your profile, waiting is not prudence — it is postponement with real cost.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is it worth waiting for the Selic to fall to buy property in Florianópolis?

For most profiles, no. The cost of waiting 12 months in Florianópolis — adding up rent and property appreciation — exceeds R$ 129,000, while the expected savings from a financing rate drop is approximately R$ 137,000 over 30 years. The net balance is nearly neutral, and the risk of the property being even more expensive at the end of the waiting period is real.

What is the property financing rate in 2026?

In May 2026, SFH rates range from 9.01% annually (Caixa Pro-Subscriber, for those using FGTS) to 11.70% annually (private banks). The lowest front-desk rate without FGTS is 11.19% annually at Caixa Econômica Federal.

Can I use FGTS on a R$ 900,000 property in Florianópolis?

Yes. The SFH ceiling was raised to R$ 2.25 million in November 2025. A R$ 900,000 apartment in Florianópolis falls within this limit and is eligible for FGTS use — both to compose the down payment and to access the pro-subscriber rate of 9.01% annually at Caixa.